DOE Releases Annual Energy Outlook 2013 -- Coal Will Still Dominate
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) analyzes and disseminates fact-based reports related to energy information across many sectors. EIA’s goal is to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. Like it does every year, in 2012 the EIA evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets. This month, the EIA issued the early release version of the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013). It focuses on the factors that shape U.S. energy markets through 2040, under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. Rich in data, it provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serves as a great starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, or regulations or potential technology breakthroughs. The complete AEO2013 will be released early 2013. For now and fitting for year-end, here is a snapshot of the early AEO2013 outlook:
- Generation from renewables grows from 13 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2040. Electricity generation from solar and to a lesser extent, wind energy sources, grow as recent cost declines make them more economical.
- With improved efficiency of energy use and a shift away from the most carbon-intensive fuels, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remain more than 5 percent below their 2005 level through 2040.
- On average for all customer classes, electricity prices in 2035 are projected to be 10.1 cents per kilowatthour (2011 dollars) and the prices continue rising to 10.8 cents per kilowatthour in 2040. More detailed electricity data is found in this handy chart.
The report is loaded with detailed tables and other useful information. I found it interesting that even with innovation and new forms of energy production, some things don’t change. For example, while I expect the grid to be a whole lot smarter, the chart below shows that coal will still reign in electricity production in 2040.
Here's to a safe, happy and energy efficient 2013!